Britain leaving the European Union is not worth the risk when assessing the economic impacts, according to Aviva group CEO Mark Wilson.
COVER's sister title Post reported that speaking at Cass Business School yesterday (23 March), Wilson, pictured, considered the four main economic risks of leaving of the EU are the impact of uncertainty on sentiment, barriers to trade, lower growth and the impact of uncertainty on the City of London.
In uncertain times, markets become volatile, he explained.
"What's the inevitable result? A fall in confidence, a fall in equities and a fall in Sterling. That these will fall is undeniable. The question is: how much and for how long?" Wilson said.
Commenting on the impact of a Brexit on trade, he added: "It's not only tariffs and quotas, it's the non-tariff barriers from leaving a single market that will slow trade and hurt UK exports."
Wilson cited a recent PWC report that found a Brexit could have an impact of up to £100bn in the short-term. The professional services firm predicted GDP would lower by 1.2% to 3.5% in 2030 if Britain votes "leave" on 23 June.
"Doesn't sound a lot? Well, it would be £25bn to £65bn permanently wiped off the economy," Wilson said. "That's more than the UK's entire defence budget."
As for the implications of a Brexit to the City of London, Wilson said: "The City is the gateway to the EU and the envy of other financial centres. Do we really want to close that gate?"
Trade agreements will also have to be negotiated, which would take time and with no guarantees, he added.
"So do we think leaving the EU is worth it? On balance, no. Because there is no insurance policy against Brexit."
