The number of elderly people needing care will ‘outstrip' the number of adult children being able to provide informal care by 2017 and will put further pressure on funding, an Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) has warned.
The report said most care for older people is not provided by the state or private agencies but by family members, at an estimated value of £55 billion annually.
Few are convinced that politics has the answers - a quarter think the government has the right policies on social care, the IPPR said.
The care gap will be driven by a "sharp increase" in the number of people aged 65 and over with disabilities.
Overstretched services "will struggle to provide extra care, with two-thirds of all health resources already devoted to older people and social care services facing a funding crisis", the report warned.
It added: "Adult children and partners will take on even greater caring responsibilities and more people, particularly women who outnumber men as carers by nearly two to one, are likely to have to give up work to do so."
Plans 'not radical enough'
While the Coalition government is integrating health and social care services, the report highlighted that the plans are not radical enough with additional funding likely to be needed.
The IPPR estimated by 2030, 230,000 older people who need care of more than 20 hours a week could be left to cope alone.
Long term projections for England suggested that in 2032 more than 1.2 million people with support needs aged over 65 (of which 860,000 will be 75 or over) will not be receiving any informal care. This represents a rise of 71% or 80% for the over-75s, it added.
Meanwhile, "dramatic rises in the cost of care means that those ineligible for state funding, in the absence of informal sources, may struggle to afford formal care services."
The report also identified since 2010, the average annual cost for an older person who pays for a typical package of care has increased to £7,900 a year, an increase of almost £740.
The number of people aged 65 and over receiving publicly funded care (in their own home and in care homes) has fallen from 1.2 million in 2004/05 to 898,000 in 2012/13, despite the growing elderly population.
Recommendations
As a result the report recommended:
• New neighbourhood networks to help older people to stay active and healthy, help busy families balance work and care and reduce pressures on the NHS and social care.
• Care coordinators providing a single local point of contact, to replace the ‘case management' currently provided by adult social services in every area by 2020, for all but the most complex cases of care.
• The option of a shared budget to enable those using community care to arrange this collectively.
• Stronger employment rights for those caring for people who need more than 20 hours of care a week, to make it easier for family members to combine work and care.
