No rate hike until Autumn 2015, predicts E&Y

clock

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) should hold off on raising interest rates even though its stated threshold for doing so - a fall in the unemployment rate to 7% - is in sight, according to a report.

As well as unemployment, the Committee should add a requirement for real wages to be rising before it increases rates, according to the latest Ernst & Young (E&Y) ITEM Club report.

The report highlights that, as the annual rate of inflation has steadily fallen in the last two years, this has not been accompanied by a rise in earnings. Over the same period that saw CPI inflation fall from 4.7% to 2.1%, earnings inflation has also fallen, from 3.2% to 1%.

The E&Y report also said the MPC should preferably hold off increasing interest rates until business investment and exports have also revived.

"The MPC has set a fall in the unemployment rate to 7% as the threshold for it to consider a rise in interest rates," the report reads. "However, with this threshold now in sight, but real wages still falling and the consumer continuing to dominate the recovery, the MPC faces a dilemma.

"Fortunately, with inflation set to move below the 2% target, the MPC will have time to assess this situation, and we do not expect the first rate hike until the Autumn of 2015."

The E&Y Item Club report predicts that unemployment will fall below 7% in the first half of 2014, but that wages will grow only 1.8% in 2014, before rising by 2.7% in 2014, and 3.5% the year after.

More on Regulation

Most firms unable to meet bereavement claims performance levels: FCA

Most firms unable to meet bereavement claims performance levels: FCA

Call for improved bereavement handling times

Cameron Roberts
clock 22 November 2024 • 3 min read
Record-high receipts for IPT and employer NICs

Record-high receipts for IPT and employer NICs

HMRC data

Cameron Roberts
clock 21 November 2024 • 2 min read
Chancellor targets FOS modernisation and FCA consultation

Chancellor targets FOS modernisation and FCA consultation

Consultation part of the advice guidance boundary review

Isabel Baxter
clock 15 November 2024 • 3 min read

Highlights

COVER Survey: Advisers damning of protection insurer service levels

COVER Survey: Advisers damning of protection insurer service levels

"It takes longer than ever to get underwriting terms"

John Brazier
clock 12 October 2023 • 5 min read
Online reviews trump price for young people selecting life and health cover

Online reviews trump price for young people selecting life and health cover

According to latest ReMark report

John Brazier
clock 11 October 2023 • 2 min read
ABI members with staff neurodiversity policy nearly doubles

ABI members with staff neurodiversity policy nearly doubles

Women within executive teams have grown to 32%

Jaskeet Briah
clock 10 October 2023 • 3 min read