The government's plan to introduce a £75,000 cap on care costs in 2017 will by no means remove the burden on private payers and their families, according to Laing & Buisson.
The healthcare intelligence provider said the scene is now set for a future bidding war between political parties as to the exact level at which the key numbers should be set - the lifetime cap, the asset threshold, the contribution to general living costs and the tariff income rate - just as successive governments vary ordinary tax rates from year to year.
It added that, with an eye to the older vote, it is unlikely that politicians will simple allow these numbers to change in line with inflation, which will in turn lead to continuing uncertainty.
William Laing, Laing & Buisson chief executive said: "It is only the government's additional promise to give people the right to defer paying during their lifetime from 2015 that allows the coalition to claim that no-one will be forced to sell their house to pay for care.
"What the government has done is to propose a real, if limited, reduction in the burden of catastrophic care costs on middle England, but government presentation risks over-stating what has been done, with the attendant downside of disappointment when reality sinks in."
The analyst added that there are further hidden dangers in the asset threshold move.
By raising the upper limit from £23,250 to £123,000 a large number of residents who would have been private payers will be drawn within local authority payment, with its inadequate fee levels.
On average, according to Laing and Buisson data, English councils are paying just £480 per week for residential care in 2012/13, approximately £50 - £140 less than the ‘fair market price' range of £528 - £623 calculated by Laing & Buisson's Fair Price for Care toolkit (with nursing care fees being about £150 per week higher).
Therefore, it said, an increase in the proportion of care home places funded by councils will exacerbate the existing situation where private payers are forced to ‘cross subsidise' publicly funded residents.
There are currently about 175,000 private payers in care homes across the UK and Laing & Buisson's best estimate is that about 20,000 of them would be drawn within the ambit of inadequate local authority fee rates as a result of the increase in the upper asset threshold to £123,000.
